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Comparing: The AI Answer Was Wrong—And I Had No Idea Where It Went Wrong & AI 回答出了错,你却不知道它哪里想错了

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Anthropicindependent consultantpersonal brand creator·

The AI Answer Was Wrong—And I Had No Idea Where It Went Wrong

Today, I nearly sent a client an incorrect AI answer

On Tuesday afternoon, I was doing industry analysis for a client in Hangzhou. The model merged the timelines of two policies. The numbers looked smooth, and I almost pasted them straight into the proposal. When the client asked for sources, I discovered that one of the policies did not exist. I panicked for a moment: I had only just understood that AI’s biggest problem is not obvious nonsense—it is being wrong in a way that looks real. It is fine not to deal with this now, but if I use AI to deliver conclusions, this step is worth taking another ten minutes.

The research: don’t just hear the answer, check the reasoning

Anthropic recently introduced research into “provable reasoning.” The core idea is not to make models never answer incorrectly, but to give them a derivation process that can be checked. I understand the paper this way: whenever AI reaches a conclusion, it writes out the intermediate steps, evidence, and uncertainties, making it easier for a person to spot weak links.

Some people are already doing something similar. Siyuan Chen runs an independent consulting business in Shanghai. He has the model list the facts first, then attach evidence to each one; when information cannot be confirmed, he explicitly labels it “to be verified.” His method is not sophisticated, but it is steadier than asking for a polished conclusion directly. The same approach can work for our side projects, proposals, and personal brands.

Reproducing it today: almost no cost, but I had to change how I ask

Cost: CNY 0, using the AI chat tools I already have. Time: about 15 minutes. Technical barrier: no programming required; I only need to check the sources it cites. Operational barrier: no need to study the paper; I can start with the prompt below.

I can copy this: “Give the conclusion, but break the reasoning into three steps; list the evidence for each step; flag uncertain points separately, and tell me what still needs checking. Do not present guesses as facts.” Then I ask: “Which step is most likely wrong? What is the cheapest way to verify it?”

I have made this mistake too: at first, I asked the model to “make it sound professional,” and all it did was make the tone professional. I reduced rework only after I added “list evidence, flag uncertainties, and suggest a verification method.” One caveat: this approach cannot guarantee the answer is correct. It only helps me find risks earlier. For important data, I still need to return to official websites, original contracts, or confirmation from the client.

Choose based on your current workload; no need to do everything at once

If I am just starting: it is fine not to try this now. I can add “provide evidence” and “flag uncertainties” to my regular prompts, leave myself five extra minutes, and avoid building a complicated workflow.

If I already have one or two clients: for pricing, proposals, and factual judgments, I would ask the model to include sources and personally spot-check the most important one. Before delivery, I would also add: “Which parts here are only assumptions?” This can stop the client from discovering the problem for me.

If I am scaling up: I would create a checklist covering sources, dates, numbers, and the boundaries of any commitments, then have the team apply it. AI can generate the first draft, but the responsibility for verification must stay with a person. I would test it on one frequent task for two weeks before deciding whether to expand. This tool is not for everyone; what matters is whether it works with the professional judgment I already have.

BZH
Anthropic独立咨询者个人IP创作者·

AI 回答出了错,你却不知道它哪里想错了

今天我差点把一句错的 AI 答案发给客户

周二下午,我在杭州给一位客户做行业分析。模型把两条政策的时间线拼在一起,数字看着很顺,我差点直接复制进提案。客户追问来源时,我才发现其中一条根本不存在。那一刻我很慌:我也是刚搞明白,AI 最麻烦的不是明显胡说,而是错得像真的。现在不处理也没事,但如果你靠它交付结论,这一步值得多花十分钟。

这项研究讲的是:别只听答案,还要检查推理过程

Anthropic 最近介绍“可证明推理”的研究进展,核心不是让模型永远不答错,而是让它给出一个能被检查的推导过程。论文可以理解成:AI 每次得出结论时,把中间步骤、依据和不确定性写出来,人更容易找到薄弱环节。

已经有人在做类似的事。陈思远在上海经营独立咨询业务,他让模型先列事实,再逐条标注依据;遇到无法确认的信息,就明确写成“待核实”。他的做法并不高级,却比直接要一段漂亮结论更稳。咱们做副业、写方案、做个人 IP,同样可以借用这个思路。

今天复刻:几乎不用钱,但要先改提问方式

钱:0 元,用现有 AI 对话工具即可。时间:约 15 分钟。技术门槛:不需要编程,只要会检查它引用的来源。操作门槛:不用研究论文;先从下面这段提问开始。

你可以复制:“请给出结论,但把推理拆成三步;每一步列出依据;不确定的地方单独标注,并告诉我还需要查什么。不要把猜测写成事实。”然后追问:“哪一步最可能错?请给出一个最便宜的核查办法。”

我也搞错过:最早我要求模型“写得专业一点”,结果它只是把语气做专业了。后来我补上“列依据、标不确定、给核查办法”,才真正少返工。注意,这套方法不能保证答案正确,只是帮你更早发现风险;重要数据仍要回到官方网站、合同原件或客户确认。

按你现在的工作量来选,不必一步到位

如果你刚起步:现在不试也没事。先把“给出依据”和“标出不确定”加进常用提示词,每次多留 5 分钟,不必搭复杂流程。

如果你已经有 1-2 个客户:涉及报价、方案和事实判断时,我会要求模型附来源,并自己抽查最关键的一条。我也会在交付前加一句:“这里哪些内容只是推测?”这能避免客户替你发现问题。

如果你正在扩规模:我会整理一张检查表,固定检查来源、时间、数字和承诺边界,再交给团队执行。AI 可以生成初稿,但核查责任必须落在人身上。先从一个高频任务试两周,再决定是否扩大;这工具不是所有人都需要,关键是它能否配合你已有的专业判断。